Posts by Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“And you must acknowledge that one study is less convincing than six that show the basic same thing. And you must also acknowledge that a smaller study has more room for variation than a larger one. If you can agree with that, we can move on.”

LisaRose,

More documented information is always more convincing that less documented information. In other words I’ve expressed this several times during this discussion. I haven’t changed my mind.

Adamah,

When composing my extrapolation I considered the issue of teens and a higher incidence ratio unrelated to refusal of blood product (e.g., Maori ethnicity).

Here’s why I opted not to mathematically account for the issue of teen deaths due to red cell transfusion refusal:

1. I don’t know that there is anything to account for because I don’t know that any of the teens are among the 21 deaths in the 103 JW patients.

2. I’m familiar with laws and customs related to refusal of treatment of a broad spectrum of healthcare service areas around the world. I disagree with you about the potential for inclusion of teens in Beliaev’s study by comparison for at least the following reasons: 1) In third-world areas refusal of blood transfusion by adults alone would more than offset the potential disparity you cite because these service areas are more dependant on red cell transfusion to treat anemia than in developed service areas. 2) In developed healthcare service areas (e.g., the USA) there is a medical ethics concept known as “mature minor”. Under this ethical legal construct doctors and institutions have allowed themselves to perform high risk procedures on minors who achieved a rather subjective competency threshold value and who refused blood. At the very least this would mitigate the effect you cite. 3) The advent of alternatives to red cell transfusion to treat anemia (particularly in the Hb range of =/<8 g dL to >7 g dL) further mitigates the effect of teen inclusion because the threshold value of Hb =/<8 g dL does not necessarily demand transfusion of red cells when alternative treatment is available. In many instances there is actually a good medical argument not to give red cell transfusion to treat anemia Hb =/>6-7 g dL. Hence had a JW teen with Hb =/>6-7 g dL not been treated with red cells transfusion it could easily be the case the transfusion was avoided because of implementing an alternative therapy that is arguably better and that this was done regardless of patient preference of no red cell transfusion. In other words, in these cases alternative treatment effectivly trumped the question of red cell transfusion or no red cell transfusion.

3. In addition to the preceding, there are additional deaths due to JWs refusing blood products other than red cells, and the Beliaev study examined outcomes related strictly to red cell transfusion. Alone this single factor would likely (if not surely) outweigh the effect you cite of teen inclusion, should it be real.

“Not only does the sample population have a higher rate of anemia, but you admit that in the sub-population it has a higher mortality rate if left untreated, and those two factors explain WHY the study is unfit for extrapolation purposes: it's not truly a representative sample of the entire population Worldwide.”

I do not compare results of the Beliaev study with the entire population worldwide.

I compare the result of the Beliaev study with the population of JWs worldwide.

JW make up the “the sample population” you speak of and the “sub-population” you speak of, and it's mortality among the JW population that is at issue.

If I’ve misunderstood you please feel free to restate yourself or otherwise clarify.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“I just want you to admit that the study could be flawed, as most studies are.”

LisaRose,

I don’t know that a particular presentation of information is flawed until a flaw is demonstrated one way or another.

I don’t know that “most studies are” flawed. That’s a sweeping generalization.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“I wonder if is even possible they matched these patients in enough ways to make the results statistically meaningful. People are all unique individuals. Unless you are comparing identical twins, it's obvious that they are not matching in every thing, maybe not even then. You brush off the criticisms of Ibister as if they are nothing, but he did say they were comparing apples to oranges. I believe you do not want to accept the possibility that he could be right. With only 103 JW patients, it wouldn't be hard to totally throw off the results. That is why the results of only one study are suspect, especially when the control is so small.

“Do you not see the possibility that the study could be wrong or overstated?”

LisaRose,

I’ve not brushed off Isbister’s criticism. I’ve pointed out a demonstrable false premise of his criticism. He overlooked the very thing he complained of. It’s right in the articles for everyone to see.

To borrow a phrase, Do you not see the possibility that Isbister could be wrong?

Otherwise, in a matched comparison the disparity between 2:103 and 21:103 is not likely to be freak happenstance.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“The figures are approximations by applying the cause of death data to the JW population.”

Yes. That is what I said before in other words.

Refusing blood is almost never cited as cause of death. The deaths we’re talking about are buried in the numbers in your chart from one side to the other, sometimes including even suicide believe it or not.

“Now, in 2011 the regular data tells is that 14k would die from Heart disease, 13.5k from Cancer, 1.9k from alzheimers and dementia, 1.6k from influenza and 900 suicides.”

A deceased’s cause of death listed as “heart disease” may well be a result of refusing blood.

Same with cancer.

Etc.

The numbers of those who’ve died prematurely are buried in the statistics you show, only the deaths we’re talking about add to the overall mortality. But, again, they’re buried under “cause of death” that does not identify the active consequent of refusing blood when it would have made a difference.

I don’t have access to the patient records in Beliaev’s data set. But it would not surprise me to learn that “cause of death” was not listed as “refusing blood” in even one instance. Yet the reality is that these deaths were identified by retrospective statistical analysis with a common cause: refusing blood when it would have saved a life.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Here's one you've never answered, and the answer COULD vastly inflate the number of your extrapolation:

“How many of those 19 JW's who died by refusing a BT were in the 16-18 y.o. age range?

“No need for an rationalization of how it wouldn't matter or such excuse, Marvin; just a simple number will suffice.”

Adamah,

Beliaev does not document how many 16-18-year olds died in the JW group.

Now tell everyone why this could vastly inflate the number of my extrapolation. Can you please do that?

“Also Marvin, I think you are going off your experience which differs greatly to other people's. Why does your experience count and others don't? You are quick to dismiss other people's experience of *not* coming across many cases of JWs dying because of blood.”

Simon,

No. I can’t use my experience to extrapolate real numbers. I can only extrapolate real numbers with real data before me with a face value.

I have not dismissed anyone else’s experience, either. It’s quite common for JWs to not have firsthand experience/knowledge of a JW who they know for sure died due to blood refusal. What I’ve done is used numbers to show why this experience can be real despite the numbers I’ve extrapolated. In other words, I’ve used numbers to demonstrate why this lack of firsthand knowledge is no refutation of my extrapolation but, rather, consistent with my extrapolation. This is not a dismissal of other people’s experience.

“50,000 deaths by refusing blood would be over twice the number of suicides. Are suicides easier or harder to 'hide' from stats? Do we know those?”

Suicides are easier to identify than mortality due to refusing blood.

Also, the data you’re using appears to come from cause of death data. Refusing blood is not usually cited as cause of death. For instance, cause of death from hemorrhage due to blunt trauma by a patient who refuses red cell transfusion would not be listed as “died due to refusing blood”. This is one of many reasons why these deaths fly under the radar and whose quantity is identified only by retrospective statistical analysis.

The deaths we're discussing are buried in the figures you cite above. They're buried all the way across the board, sometimes even the deaths by suicide believe it or not.

“It's also about the same as would die from Alzheimers or dementia. How many do you know die from those? Any? Many? You need the same number to have died refusing blood. Same for diabetes.”

Same as above.

“Now, for every one you know who's died of influenza or stroke, about 2/3rds of that number died from refusing blood.:

Same.

“And finally, for every 7 or 8 people who die from heart disease or cancer, one is dying from refusing blood.”

Same.

“That's if you take the 50,000 figure. Obviously, the 250,000 gives even wilder outcomes - in fact you're nearly at the 50/50 level of being off'd by blood refusal as by one of the leading causes of death for the general population.”

JWs with severe blood loss have a very good chance of dying if they refuse blood. It’s just no listed as cause of death.

“Whether you find those figures believable or not based on your own experience is up to everyone to decide.”

I see nothing in your chart that surprises me.

“250,000 would mean 15% of JW deaths were due to refusal of blood treatment.

“Sorry, I just don't buy it.”

Close, but not exactly.

If 250,000 JWs died because of refusing blood then it means this would be 250,000 deaths in addition to the standard mortality we would expect.

To put this in perspective, 5x 50,000 deaths over the period of 1961-2011 would translate into about 1 death annually per 11 congregations. Given how these deaths can go unidentified without by retrospective statistical analysis that rate could be happening right in front of our eyes and we’d not realize it.

If we take this figure of 5x 50,000 death over the greater period of 1945-2013 the reality would be even harder to see.

Simon,

It looks like I’m out of posts again. Don’t know when I can reply.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“I dislike the "conservative" label as it is ascribing some certainty to what is really an unknown.”

Simon,

That’s false.

I’ve not just made conservative assumptions. My conservative assumptions have been to ignore the possibility of even one more death over and beyond what Beliaev found in his data set.

We can be CERTAIN that that assumption is A KNOWN because there is no such a thing as a negative-death value (input) to be found in any patient’s record in any hospital, whether in the 2 regions of Beliaev’s data set or elsewhere.

Otherwise I’ve taken the 19 deaths attributed to refusing red cell transfusion at face value. We know these 19 deaths occurred over the 10 year period of 1998-2007. We also know the aggregate population of JWs in New Zealand during the same period. We also know the population distribution of New Zealanders during the same period. My extrapolation does no more than let this data speak for its face value for what it suggests about the numbers of JWs dead due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Marvin, anytime someone shows you why you could be wrong you refuse to even consider it.”

That’s false.

In each case when someone has presented something specific (not ambiguous) that can be responded to then I have considered it and responded.

So far all you’ve done is offer generalities.

If you know of at least ONE thing that I’ve done that would INFLATE the value in my extrapolation then spell it out. Say it. Tell me specifically WHAT it is.

Otherwise I’ve taken information at face value and extrapolated based on given assumptions, which assumptions are in each case are conservative.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Do you still believe that Marvin?

“That the number would easily be 250,000 (I take that to be "at least").”

Simon,

Based on my work behind the scenes with Watchtower appointed HLC members and other insiders at Bethel over the years in its Hospital Information Services department (and before that with JW attorneys working with JW patients trying to resist blood), plus my independent experience, I can see this number having been achieved. This is particularly the case given what has gone on in years past in underdeveloped nations with a relatively high ratio of JWs, like Mexico. In a lot of these countries no one really cared if some JW refused blood and died the result, unless it was a young mother or child. The numbers are staggering. But people don’t know this because it all happened in days when information was not widely available in communities that didn’t have safe drinking water and with open sewers running down main street. If you wanted to share the event you’d have to walk 20 miles to mail a letter, and then pray the letter got through. Or you could walk 100 miles to the nearest telephone. If a JW wanted to die refusing a blood transfusion they just let them go ahead and have their way. And they died. This was going on for decades.

But all that aside, if we accept at face value the contemporary numbers presented by Beliaev of a modern society with state-of-the-art healthcare (New Zealand), then one seemingly small adjustment in the calculation to account for unreported deaths as like facilities would take us nearly to the figure you cite.

I know these numbers are staggering. I don’t share them lightly. But I do share them, and I share them based on the most conservative assumption at every point where an assumption must be made to further the calculation.

You are frustrated my repeated use of “conservative”. I get frustrated because you keep complaining of this without pointing to anything in particular that I’ve done that would inflate my number.

I don’t promote the 250,000 figure because I don’t have published statistics from which to extrapolate the value.

I do promote the 50,000 figure as a minimum because I do have published statistics from which to extrapolate the value.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Would you seriously state that the Watchtowers Blood Transfusion Policy has resulted in a number of fatalities amongst Jehovah's Witnesses equal to or greater than 50,000?”

Nicolaou,

Based on my personal experience I could easily agree with that figure as a minimum over the 50 previous years.

Based on the statistical deaths in Beliaev’s study I can extrapolate that number at least, and more if I attempted to adjust for any additional like deaths at other facilities equal to those whose patient data he used.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Marvin, all you can truly say from your data is that "at least" 19 people have died from refusing blood.”

Simon,

If I can “truly” say from the given data set that at least 19 people have died from refusing blood then I can “truly” say what that would mean applied broadly based on given assumptions.

Apparently you don’t get this. But it’s what I’ve done.

I’ve not predicted a number. I’ve extrapolated a number based on something that is ‘true’ and stated assumptions.

“Are there 49,981 more? I'm not so sure. You have not presented any compelling evidence that there are that many, just a lot of hand waving and telling anyone who questions things that they are not as intelligent as you are, are too dumb to understand (basic math) or that their questions aren't valid or worth answering.”

A lot of hand waving? Telling folks they are not as intelligent as me?

Giving specific information is not hand waving.

Answering questions crucial to my extrapolation is not hand waving.

In case you missed the memo, I do not consider myself more intelligent than other participants here. So what?

That’s not the discussion. The discussion is whether my extrapolation presents an inflated value, and if you think it does then SHOW WHY and be done with it. This latter part is what you keep failing to do. Put some skin on your complaints in the way of specific assertions so we have something to discuss. Until then you’ve said nothing.

Marvin Shilmer